Discussion Paper
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Low Carbon Society Scenario Semarang 2030

Muhammad Luthfi Eko

Following up the Presidential Regulation 61/2011 and 71/2011, Semarang City as one of the cities in Indonesia has a liability in the GHG reduction activities. This research on the low carbon society (LCS) scenario for Semarang City are carried out aiming to contribu-tion to promoting climate change actions and policies in the city. This study is one of the outcomes of the collaboration among Mu-nicipality of Semarang, Diponegoro University and Asia-Pacific Inte-grated Model (AIM) team in Japan. Two kinds of scenarios, namely Business as Usual (BaU) scenario and Countermeasure (CM) scenario, are prepared to analyze reduc-tion potential of CO2 emission in future. In BaU scenario, it is as-sumed that there is no policy or technology intervention to reduce carbon emission, while attempt to reduce carbon emission is as-sumed in CM scenario. In the CM scenario, Semarang City Govern-ment will promote five LCS actions and implement various LCS pro-jects belonged to the actions. One of the action named “Sustainable Transport”, which promotes energy efficient vehicle and modal shift, will contribute to the reduction of 4,220 ktCO2e. These actions and projects help Semarang City to reduce total CO2 emission in 2030 by 29% compared to BaU scenario. CO2 emission per GDP, which is 39.4 tCO2e/bil. Rp in 2015, will be decreased to 26.9 tCO2e/bil. Rp in BaU scenario and to 19.2 tCO2e/bil. Rp in CM scenario by 2030. Besides, CO2 emission per capita is 3.3 tCO2e/person in 2015 and will be in-creased by more than 3 times from 2015 to 2030 in BaU scenario. On the other hand, it will be reduced to 7.8 tCO2e/person from BaU scenario in CM scenario. In conclusion, Semarang City has a potential to reduce CO2 emis-sion corresponding to INDC of Indonesia. The city can be developed more effectively and efficiently with contribution to the mitigation of world climate change.