Peer-reviewed Article
Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles
Topics: Region/Country: Language:
English

Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

In Climate Policy In Press
Author: 
Jusen
ASUKA
Hanna
FEKETE
Kentaro
TAMURA
Niklas
HÖHNE
2015-07

This article assesses Japan’s carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2 8C target under different effortsharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories.
For a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical
responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550 ppm CO2e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level, Japan’s GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Remarks:

Please contact Dr. Takeshi Kuramochi for an electronic copy of the article.

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19 pages